Wednesday, March 2, 2011
The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow
We are bad judges of probability. When we get beyond the most simple probabilities, our intuition is terrible. It requires a rigorous logic that can trip up even professionals we might expect to know better. It can lead us to make inappropriate judgments about others and ourselves.
That is the premise presented by Leonard Mlodinow in The Drunkard’s Walk. The title refers to a random path that describes many things in nature, like Brownian motion, and society, like the stock market.
Mlodinow describes several way how and reasons why we make false assessments of probability. To begin with, we simply have poor intuition about randomness. Our brains are biased to see patterns even if one isn’t truly there. We can look into the past and piece together how we got where we are, ignoring all the ambiguities we faced at the time, but we can’t easily identify clear marker for the future. We make value judgments based on results when the results are due as much or more to random events as to the efforts of people. Worse, we make value judgments about people even when we know a result related to them is random. With each of these problems, the author presents examples from history or scientific studies.
In contrast to these problems, Mlodinow presents the sometimes counterintuitive, but more correct, views that come from using logic and statistical inference. In this manner her present several concepts of probability and statistics such as regression to the mean, the law of large numbers, Bayesian analysis, the law of errors, and normal accident theory. This isn’t a textbook, though, so the descriptions are aimed at making people aware of the power of these methods for correcting false intuitions, not training future statisticians.
In addition to these things, the book is a history of probability and statistics. Mlodinow goes back to the people who invented, developed and popularized the knowledge he is presenting. Many of these people are unusual characters. For instance, he introduces the battling Bernoullis, a family of mathematicians I was first introduced to through my background in hydraulics, who are colorful and combative enough to make an interesting subject by himself or herself. We get to meet some interesting gamblers, too.
Throughout the book, Mlodinow is building to the argument he presents in the final chapter. Namely, we should not judge people mainly by their results, whether or not they are successful or have failed, are rich or poor, are at the top or at the bottom. People with little difference in ability can have great differences in success due to random factors. We shouldn’t put too much stock in those that success or be to harsh with those who don’t.
We should take courage for ourselves, too. The more attempts we make, the more likely we are to eventually have a success.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Chance by Amir Aczel
The Numbers Game by Michael Blastland & Andrew Dilnot
The Pinball Effect by James Burke
The Unfinished Game by Keith Devlin
War Against the Weak by Edwin Black
Monday, April 11, 2011
Leviticus
Monday, March 7, 2011
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World by Bryan Lee O’Malley
Scott Pilgrim is an immature jerk. You might like him, though. He’s in a cool band. Though he’s a coward in ordinary thing, he’s incredibly brave in fantastical fisticuffs.
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World is a continuation of the titular character’s adventure that started in Bryan Lee O’Malley’s Precious Little Life. The boiled down version of the six-volume series of graphic novels is that Scott must defeat Ramona Flowers’ seven evil exes to win the right to date her.
In this second book, Scott defeats the second evil ex, a vain movie star who used to be a skate boarder. It’s a funny scene, but other parts of the book are better.
We get to see Scott create his own evil ex when he breaks up with his girlfriend, high-school girl Knives Chau. It’s probably a good thing for him to break up with Knives, but Scott is insensitive, selfish, and untruthful. In this sense, Knives isn’t evil in the grand sense of hating all that is good. She’s a wounded, jealous girl who is acting a little crazy, which is evil enough. It leads to one of the books fight scenes (they have the feel of video games and comics, which is a strange mix of weird and accepted in the fantasy of Toronto), which is longer and cooler than Scott’s fights.
Though Knives seems to be almost dismissed early in the book and could be dismissed as a nut in the middle, her story arc begins to open up in this volume. It’s not strictly a fall, but is a move from seemingly innocent ignorance to knowledge of the scary world of young adulthood and complicated relationships. Scott introduced her to this world, but he a poor guide. He would have been a poor guide even if he hadn’t abandoned her.
O’Malley reveals more about Scott’s other relationships. It looks like he might have a string of wounded exes. This includes band mate Kim and Envy Adams, leader of rival band The Clash at Demonhead.
O’Malley’s art in this and other Scott Pilgrims book is a little like manga with big-eyed characters. It is also simplified, cartoony. It has a rough feel. It’s better than I’ve made it sound. The black and white art is textured. It has varied, sometimes painterly, lines. It is full small touches that convey emotion, especially humor. Whatever one might think of the style, I’d say it is good comic book are because it interestingly conveys the story and reveals (not just depicts) the characters.
Bryan Lee O’Malley also wrote
Scott Pilgrim’s Precious Little Life
If your interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Maus by Art Spiegelman
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World (Film)
Sunday, August 23, 2015
Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Waste and Want by Susan Strasser
Monday, November 14, 2016
Empires of Light by Jill Jonnes
Monday, January 9, 2012
Life is So Good by George Dawson & Richard Glaubman
George Dawson was in his nineties when he learned to read. He was a centenarian when he and coauthor Richard Glaubman wrote his biography, Life is So Good. I think Dawson’s life was good, and not just because it has been so long.
Even a good life is sometimes hard. Most of Dawson’s life was hard. Black and poor were not auspicious beginnings for a boy in Texas at the beginning of the 20th Century. In the opening chapter, Dawson tells of how, as a boy, he witnessed the lynching of a young black man falsely accused of raping a young white woman. Dawson was ready to become bitter and withdraw from all contact with white people, but his father would not allow him to even consider it.
Dawson presents his parents and wise and pragmatic, making things better for themselves bit by bit. He picks it up and does the same thing in his own life, especially once he settled down to start his own family.
He had some wandering to do first. His early life of travel and adventure makes for interesting reading. He road trains all over North America, sometimes as a ticketholder and sometimes joining the hobos. He was able to find work wherever he went, mainly because there was no job so hard or unpleasant he was unwilling to try it.
Traveling opened his eyes, especially to race relations in the U.S. Growing up in the South, he thought the discrimination and oppression he was accustomed to be the way things were. In Mexico and Canada, even in parts of the U.S., he was treated like anyone else, regardless of color. Mexican villagers welcomed him like family and delighted in the novelty of someone so tall. Canadian lumbermen were curious about his home and happily directed him to the snow he had never seen before—it almost killed him. In his early days, he found it strange to be in places where no one cared which train car he was in or the restaurant at which he ate.
Things changed a lot in Dawson’s more than 100 years of life, though racism hasn’t disappeared. (I grew up in a town that was 99 percent white and I’m barely 40 years old. In the same county were villages that were almost entirely black.) Even in the face of difficulties, Dawson persisted and bit by bit made life better for himself and his family. When retirement came it wasn’t time to rest from his labors, it was time to pick up the education he had been denied as a boy because he had to work.
Dawson’s life story is worth reading simply because he is a witness to history who tells his story in an interesting and accessible manner. It’s worth reading because, without trying, it has a message too: don’t worry. Dawson recommends that people not worry if they want a good life. I think it’s very good advice. Arguably, though, he was working too hard most of his life to have time for worries, even though he had cause for them.
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Deal with It! by Paula White
When Paula White says Deal with It! she doesn’t mean “suck it up.” In this book, she urges readers, particularly women, to acknowledge and confront their problems, that is, really deal with it. Fortunately, believers are not left to their own devices to overcome problems. God is ready and able to help His own.
Each chapter is built around a woman from the Bible and White’s view of her central problems. Some are well known names like Ruth, Esther, and Mary Magdalene . Some are not as well known: the Shunammite who welcomed Elisha into her home and Zelophehad’s daughters.
As much as things have changed over thousands of years, people are still people, and the problems these women faced have parallels today. Through God’s help, the women in White’s example overcame bad histories, weak men, lifestyle changes, excessive demands, deep hurt, competition, poor reputations, disappointments, injustices, and overwhelming expectations.
God came through for these women. Of course, as with us, God did not always choose to act immediately or in the ways they might have wanted. However, they trusted Him and persevered faithfully. God will come through, but it is important how we think and act in the meantime. We are called to do what is right, obey proper authority, stand up for justice, and hold onto faith in God all the time, especially in tough times.
White’s style is much like speech. Since she is mainly a speaker and preacher, you might expect it. In some ways, the book reads like a collection of sermons, though the chapters are tightly linked by a central theme.
As in her preaching and other books, White draws on her personal experience. She presents herself as having been a messed up young woman who made many bad decisions, had a head full of bad ideas, and beset with hang-ups. If you’d lived her life, maybe you’d have fallen into the same errors. She’s not complaining, though. She uses these examples to show how God has turned things around for her, just as he did for the Biblical women she writes about.
That is the central issue of the book. Things don’t have to remain as they are. God has the power to change them. However, we must face our problems and deal with them. We can’t let ourselves be derailed by time or difficulties, but trusting and obeying God we can see our lives renewed into something even better than we might have imagined.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Acts
The Emotional Energy Factor by Mira Kirshenbaum
Genesis
The Gospel of John
The Joy of Supernatural Thinking by Bill Bright
Love and Respect by Emerson Eggerichs
Sunday, April 17, 2016
You Can, You Will by Joel Osteen
In You Can, You Will, megachurch pastor Joel Osteen
discusses qualities of a winner. Actually, Osteen might say that you’re already
a winner, you just need to start believing and acting one to see in come to
fruition.
First, winners have a vision and they stay focused on in. A practical
way that Osteen suggests to keep your vision before your eyes is to put things
in your environment, like sayings or objects, that remind you of your vision.
Winners stay focused on their goals. In particular,
they don’t get derailed by trying to please everyone or to please people who
are never happy. They know the difference between being kind and generous and
taking improper responsibility for the happiness of others.
Osteen encourages people to expect good things to happen. Reinforce
this belief by actively remembering good things that have happened to you in
the past.
Be positive intentionally. Do your best to enjoy whatever you can in
your current situation, even while you hope and work for something better.
Winners strive for excellence. Do the best you can and look for ways to
improve. Show your desire for excellence by taking care of yourself and your
things.
Always be growing. If you’re not working to improve your abilities,
you’ll get left behind. Besides, if you have big dreams, there are probably many
things you need to learn
and improve on your way to achieving them.
Make service a lifestyles. Try to make life actually better for actual
people. As a bonus, you’ll have more satisfaction with life.
Finally, be enthusiastic. Stir up your passion. It’s easy to get bogged
down and discouraged, so you have to intentionally maintain a good attitude that
will carry you through rough times.
Mostly, this is standard self-help
material. Osteen touches on a more deeply and fundamentally Christian
topic in the chapter on serving others. The Bible
repeatedly describes God
as a helper of the poor, widowed, orphan and oppressed. He repeatedly expresses
the pleasure he takes in His people when they help needy people.
Though he doesn’t devote a chapter too it, Osteen emphasizes the need
to surround yourself with good people. You need to spend time with people who
will challenge and encourage you. Spend as much time as you can with people you
want to be like.
Joel Osteen also wrote I Declare.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Osteen, Joel. You Can, You Will:
8 Undeniable Qualities of a Winner. New York: Faith Words, 2014.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Second Kings
Saturday, September 29, 2018
A Mind for Numbers by Barbara A. Oakley
Friday, January 22, 2010
Late Night Showdown
I’ll refer to the host instead of the show. For many of use, they’re nearly synonymous and the hosts clearly have a lot to do with the tone and flavor of the show.
7 (because there aren’t 10 on the list). Jimmy Kimmel
Kimmel is last on my list because I watch him least. I get poor reception of the nearest ABC affiliate. What I’ve seen suggests that he is good, but he doesn’t stand out from the crowd.
6. Carson Daly
I like the new format of Daly’s show. I think it suits him better than the traditional talk show format. I rarely stay up that late, so I rarely see his show. It’s like a little slice of MTV from the days before it was dominated by horrible reality shows.
5. Craig Ferguson
Ferguson is delightfully daft. He’s not for everyone and not always for me.
4. Jay Leno
Back in Leno’s Tonight Show days, I’d watch Letterman’s monologue and opening material. I might have switched over later if Leno had a more interesting guest.
When Leno started at 9:00 (central time), I was a little excited about seeing something new, a late night style show that came on before my bedtime. I was disappointed that Leno did the same old thing with seemingly less energy. Considering that NBC brings me some version of Law and Order or Dateline almost every night, I shouldn’t be surprised.
3. Jimmy Fallon
Fallon is the Minnie Pearl of late night. He is just so happy to be there. He is enthusiastic about everything and his excitement draws me in. He has loads of fun and is fun to watch.
2. David Letterman
Letterman is the king of late night. In my opinion, he has been the best for a long time.
Letterman is a famous curmudgeon, but he can be a sweet guy. He is often aloof, but often fatherly, warm of flirtatious. He makes a living through mirth, yet shows his anger. He makes a show of the off-putting elements of his character, but has a very loyal staff, which suggests he is very loyal to them.
Letterman is a man. He is not everyman. He is a unique man, full of flaws and contradiction that are his own, who through hard work and luck gained what he still sees as the privilege to make a very good living doing what he loves to do. What could be more appealing than that?
1. Conan O’Brien
Letterman is the king of late night, but O’Brien is its future. That is what I thought until recently he still can be if NBC gets its head on straight and invests in the future of its brand (and the personal brands it helped build) instead of grasping at a expedient solutions.
I think O’Brien will put on a good show wherever he lands, though he might initially suffer from a move to another show. Whatever network nabs O’Brien will be better off for it. In the long term, NBC will deservedly suffer for the loss.
Wednesday, June 3, 2020
Living Low Carb y Johnny Bowden
If you are overweight and having trouble losing the extra
pounds (or keeping them off), there is a good chance that carbohydrates are your problem. In Living Low Carb, nutritionist Johnny Bowden describes the link between
carbohydrates, insulin and fat
storage. (I previously summarized this relationship in my review of Why
We Get Fat by Gary Taubes.)