Ambrose, Stephen E. Undaunted Courage: Meriwether Lewis, Thomas Jefferson, and the Opening of the American West. 1996. New York: Touchstone, 1997.
Undaunted Courage is a biography of Meriwether Lewis. It is also, to a large extent, an account of Lewis’ expedition, co-led by William Clark, up the Missouri River, across the Rocky Mountains, down the Columbia River to the Pacific Coast and back again.
The Lewis and Clark expedition, the bicentennial of which was celebrated in 2004 through 2006, is rightly presented as the centerpiece of Lewis’ life. Ambrose shows how Lewis’ early life in the plantations and wilderness of Virginia, as a militia officer during the Whiskey Rebellion and under the political tutelage of Thomas Jefferson uniquely prepared Lewis to lead a company of explorer-soldiers with a broad mission. His life after the expedition was brief and troubled.
The western exploration, beginning in 1804 and ending in 1806, is the major focus of the narrative. It was more than simply a trip. Lewis and Clark were charged with scientific observation (particularly geography, botany and zoology), Indian diplomacy, establishing trade, and what might be considered a touch of espionage. With the exception of Indian policy, Lewis, Clark and their men performed admirably.
Lewis, throughout the mission and afterward, wanted to make it clear that he and Clark had equal parts in the leadership of the expedition. It is extraordinary that this worked so well. One gets the impression for the book that Lewis was the senior of these equals, which may explain it. Even so, Lewis seemed to prefer the close companionship of trusted peers and friends.
Lewis achieved great success while still relatively young, in his early thirties. Early success can be tough, but Lewis seems like a man who can handle tough situations. However, his few years of life after the expedition seem to be characterized by failure. Certainly, the political situation in the Louisiana Territory, where Lewis was appointed governor, was very difficult, and he may not have been cut out to be a politician and bureaucrat. However, he left important matters that were easily within his grasp undone. Notably, he never published the expedition journals, which more than anything else may have sealed his fame, supported his policies and multiplied the fruit of his exceptional labor.
The final years of Lewis’ life, which ended in suicide, raises many unanswered, and possibly unanswerable, questions. Even so, Ambrose’s biography of the man is an interesting story, and sometime and exciting tale of his great adventure.
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query courage. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query courage. Sort by date Show all posts
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Sunday, August 28, 2016
The Explorer King by Robert Wilson
Clarence
King was probably the most well-known American scientist
of his time. It doesn’t hurt that his scientific reputation was built on
exploration of the then still wild west of the United States
of that he could spin a tale. Robert Wilson
recounts the life of the accomplished geologist in The Explorer King.
King was born in 1842. He was raised
in Newport,
Massachusetts. He was educated at Yale’s Sheffield
Scientific School.
As a young man, King was enamored of art
critic
John Ruskin.
Ruskin thought the rugged Alps of Europe to be the
best subject of art for their beauty, colorfulness, ruggedness and variety.
When he met western geologists and mountaineers through mentors at Sheffield,
he wanted to be part of it.
He headed out for California in
1863 and became
part of the state’s geologic survey. He would spend the next decade studying
the geology and geography
of the American west, especially its mountains. He showed great physical
prowess and courage as a mountaineer.
After working on the California survey, he went on to lead surveys. In 1864, he was chosen
to lead a survey of Yosemite.
He built on his reputation from the Yosemite survey to lobby Congress to
fund a survey of the 40th Parallel, roughly the route the
transcontinental railroads
would follow. Though it was under the auspices of the Army Corp
of Engineers, it was the first federally-funded scientific endeavor that
was completely staffed by civilians. While working on this survey, he was the
first to discover active glaciers in the U.S. His team published new methods of
silver smelting to make the mines for productive (the survey’s first report
dealt with mining in order to show the commercial value of their research to
money-conscious Congressmen).
The 40th Parallel survey made King famous, though not
because of the many contributions to science that came from it. King’s team heard
rumors of a diamond discovery in Colorado. It
would have been very embarrassing for them to have walked over such a valuable
mineral resource without observing it. They tracked down the site of the
discovery and determined it was a hoax; the site had been planted with rough
diamonds and other uncut gemstones that the con men had
bought mostly with money from their marks. Stories of massive fraud sells
newspapers, especially when the names of big money men in San Francisco
and New York
are attached to it. King was the hero of the story.
When the U.S.
Geological Survey was created, King was appointed to be its first director.
His career as a scientist was already on the decline. He would turn his
attention to making money in mining, but he would not be successful. He would
have no money when he died.
This leads to an interesting point about King, though it is not the
focus of Wilson’s biography. King had nothing to leave for his secret family.
He was married to a black woman. This was a very unusual thing at the time. To
protect his reputation, he kept the marriage
a secret. He did not even reveal to his wife his real identity until shortly
before he died (she knew him as James Todd).
His friend John
Hay provided for Ada
Copeland Todd (and the five children she had with King) after King died in 1901.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Mayflower by Nathaniel Philbrick
Philbrick, Nathaniel. Mayflower: A Story of Courage, Community, and War. New York: Viking, 2006.
In Mayflower, Nathaniel Philbrick writes about the Plymouth Colony from the Pilgrim’s flight from Europe to the end of King Philip’s War. It is mainly a story of how the settler’s and their descendants related to the natives.
It was by no means certain that the Pilgrims would get along with the Indians. They were chiefly concerned with building a community on their religious convictions, strong beliefs they held on to in spite of persecution in England. In the New World, they would do things their way.
Even so, they were surprisingly humble. The hardships they faced in America were enough to humble anyone. They quickly realized their dependence on the sufferance of the native populations. Unwittingly, they had upset the political balance of the Indian tribes.
Massasoit was the leader of a tribe that was weakened by disease and other setbacks. Once one of the leading tribes in the regions, the Pokanokets were in danger of being subdued by their rivals. Massasoit, their sachem, built and alliance with the Pilgrims at Plymouth that kept him in a strong position.
This is only the beginning of the political intrigues that run through the history of the Plymouth colony. Many native leaders and would-be sachems used the English, their technology, and the fear many Indians felt to carve out a place for themselves in the dangerous world of inter-tribal politics.
Against this backdrop, the Pilgrims cultivated allies amongst the Indians. Though their desire for religious purity may caused them to separate themselves from the churches in England may have tended to isolate them, the discipline, self-control, humility, and justice required by their faith made them more palatable to the natives than other European settlers.
Things changed quickly within a couple of generations. The Pilgrims were chiefly interested in their religious community, but their immediate descendants were interested in land and the wealth it brought. This inevitably led to competition for resources. The Indians became resentful and the English shed humility as they gained power.
Massasoit’s grandson, Philip, doesn’t seem like a fighter. In fact, he was generally a runner. Even so, he was the spark that set ablaze a war in New England. The sachems before him sold much land to the settlers and Philip found himself without the resources to support his people. He strung things along for a while using threats and capitulations to get what he needed from the English, much like today’s small nuclear states do to the Western countries on a global scale. Plymouth officials became too high-handed with Philip and soon events and the resentments of his young warriors pushed the sachem into war.
The action of the war chapters makes them more interesting reading, but they tell an awful tale. The English killed, enslaved or displace half the native population of southern New England. The land they coveted was theirs for the taking, though Plymouth was so indebted after the war, it couldn’t afford the expansion.
The expulsion of Indians made the frontiers more dangerous. Friendly natives had once buffered the settlers from hostile tribes. Now a settler clearing the frontier was likely to be surrounded by hostile tribes and have no hope of help if they decided to purge foreigners.
As the United States expanded, the Pilgrims and King Philip’s War became lost history outside of New England. When they were brought back to popular knowledge, it was as stories transformed to be suitable for new times. Philbrick puts aside the romanticized tale of Thanksgiving not to debunk it, but to present the Pilgrims and Indians more as they were.
Nathanial Philbrick also wrote
Sea of Glory
If you’re interested in this book, you may might like
Undaunted Courage by Stephen Ambrose
Google
In Mayflower, Nathaniel Philbrick writes about the Plymouth Colony from the Pilgrim’s flight from Europe to the end of King Philip’s War. It is mainly a story of how the settler’s and their descendants related to the natives.
It was by no means certain that the Pilgrims would get along with the Indians. They were chiefly concerned with building a community on their religious convictions, strong beliefs they held on to in spite of persecution in England. In the New World, they would do things their way.
Even so, they were surprisingly humble. The hardships they faced in America were enough to humble anyone. They quickly realized their dependence on the sufferance of the native populations. Unwittingly, they had upset the political balance of the Indian tribes.
Massasoit was the leader of a tribe that was weakened by disease and other setbacks. Once one of the leading tribes in the regions, the Pokanokets were in danger of being subdued by their rivals. Massasoit, their sachem, built and alliance with the Pilgrims at Plymouth that kept him in a strong position.
This is only the beginning of the political intrigues that run through the history of the Plymouth colony. Many native leaders and would-be sachems used the English, their technology, and the fear many Indians felt to carve out a place for themselves in the dangerous world of inter-tribal politics.
Against this backdrop, the Pilgrims cultivated allies amongst the Indians. Though their desire for religious purity may caused them to separate themselves from the churches in England may have tended to isolate them, the discipline, self-control, humility, and justice required by their faith made them more palatable to the natives than other European settlers.
Things changed quickly within a couple of generations. The Pilgrims were chiefly interested in their religious community, but their immediate descendants were interested in land and the wealth it brought. This inevitably led to competition for resources. The Indians became resentful and the English shed humility as they gained power.
Massasoit’s grandson, Philip, doesn’t seem like a fighter. In fact, he was generally a runner. Even so, he was the spark that set ablaze a war in New England. The sachems before him sold much land to the settlers and Philip found himself without the resources to support his people. He strung things along for a while using threats and capitulations to get what he needed from the English, much like today’s small nuclear states do to the Western countries on a global scale. Plymouth officials became too high-handed with Philip and soon events and the resentments of his young warriors pushed the sachem into war.
The action of the war chapters makes them more interesting reading, but they tell an awful tale. The English killed, enslaved or displace half the native population of southern New England. The land they coveted was theirs for the taking, though Plymouth was so indebted after the war, it couldn’t afford the expansion.
The expulsion of Indians made the frontiers more dangerous. Friendly natives had once buffered the settlers from hostile tribes. Now a settler clearing the frontier was likely to be surrounded by hostile tribes and have no hope of help if they decided to purge foreigners.
As the United States expanded, the Pilgrims and King Philip’s War became lost history outside of New England. When they were brought back to popular knowledge, it was as stories transformed to be suitable for new times. Philbrick puts aside the romanticized tale of Thanksgiving not to debunk it, but to present the Pilgrims and Indians more as they were.
Nathanial Philbrick also wrote
Sea of Glory
If you’re interested in this book, you may might like
Undaunted Courage by Stephen Ambrose
Friday, December 21, 2012
STEM Books
I’ve reviewed 39 STEM-related
books (and counting). STEM is an acronym
for science,
technology,
engineering, and mathematics. As you may have seen in the news, there is a
push to improve STEM education,
interest students in STEM fields, and grow the number of workers
in these fields. The idea is that these
will be the skills needed by workers of the future. If you’re a STEM educator or a student
considering a career in STEM fields, you might like to take a look at some of
these books.
I’ll confess that I’m not an educator, but I think most of these books
will be accessible to high school and college students, and a few to middle
school students. The list is also a
reflection of my career and interests in engineering, public
health, policy,
and history. Even with these biases, I think it is a good
list for someone looking for STEM-related books.
I was fascinated by robots as a
kid. I enjoyed reading Isaac Asimov’s
robot stories. I longed for the Omnibot
2000 in the Sears Wishbook.
Robots have come a long way. In How to Build an Android, David F. Dufty
describes the short strange life of a very complex robot made to look and talk
like science
fiction author Philip K.
Dick. The robot had a very
sophisticated and lifelike head and complex artificial
intelligence. As with most complex
things, it was the work of many people who had to solve a lot of problems.
If you’re interested in robotics, this is an interesting nontechnical
book. In addition, you’ll get introduced
to some freaky sci-fi. You may even get
as (somewhat) legitimate reason to use the word “Dickhead” (capitalized, it
refers to a fan of PKD, so don’t go using it on anyone).
The Interstate
highway
system in the United States
is one of the most enormous structures built.
Some of the prospective STEM students who read this may actually be
younger than the Intestate system, though in some sense it is never complete
because it needs constant repair and maintenance. The Interstates were completed in the 1990s, but the Federal-Aid
Highways go back to 1916.
Earl
Swift wrote an accessible history of the Interstates in The Big Roads. If you interested in automobiles
or transportation,
it’s a good read.
Deborah
Cadbury describes seven wonders of engineering in Dreams of Iron and Steel. It covers almost a century of history, but
many of the events are concentrated in the Victorian Era. That was a time of great technological
innovation.
Though the book is history, many of the structures still stand. Railways, the Brooklyn
Bridge, the Suez
and Panama
Canals, and Hoover
Dam stand testament to an age of big engineering.
Though the memory of Professor Wragg’s sneer prompts me to not make
this confession, part of my interest in science and technology came from comic
books. Iron Man was
cool. Spider-Man’s
web shooters were very cool. Superhero
comics are full of fantasy,
admittedly, but the strange, unrealistic science and technology they depict
have inspired many to study STEM in reality.
Physicist John
Kakalios uses examples from comic books to explore real physics in The Physics of Supeheroes. Sometimes comics get there science
right. Even when they get it wrong, it
can be instructive. If you know what
people are talking about when they refer to the “New 52,” you may find this
book to be a great introduction to physics.
Here is another confession: I’m not especially interested in math. I endured a lot of math classes to study
engineering. Reading David
Acheson’s 1089 and All That did
not require such endurance. For one
reason, it is a short book. For another,
Acheson doesn’t expect his readers to be mathematicians; it is enough to follow
the outline of the math he discusses.
I recommend this book because so many people have a fear of math. 1089
can be followed by many high school students and older folks with math
phobias. Just take a deep breath, relax,
and follow along as well as you can.
You’ll see that math can be interesting, useful, and even beautiful in a
way.
Judith
St. George’s The Brooklyn Bridge is a short history of and iconic bridge. Written for the
bridge’s 100th anniversary, it is also the story of the engineers
who sacrificed life and health to see it completed: John Roebling and his son Washington. John Roebling was
a German immigrant who built many suspension
bridges and owed a wire-making business. He gave his son
and extraordinary education in bridge engineering for the time, and before
beginning work on the Brooklyn Bridge he served as an officer in the Union Army during the Civil War.
Why should a cutting-edge STEM student read about a
bridge that is almost 130 years old? It’s
because we still use and rely on very successful, centuries old technologies. Improving and rebuilding our infrastructure will be an important part of our economy. As recently as 2010, New York City and the federal government committed $500 million to
repair and repaint the Brooklyn Bridge.
STEM lumps together science, technology, engineering, and
mathematics. Is there a difference
between science and engineering? Is it
important?
Henry
Petroski, a professor of civil
engineering and history and author of The Essential Engineer, believes
there is an important difference. At
heart, science is about increasing knowledge. Engineering is about invention. Of course, new knowledge makes new invention
possible. Just as often, though,
engineering runs ahead of science.
Sometimes science didn’t advance until someone invented the instruments
to conduct new observations and experiments.
The invention of the microscope
made possible the science of microbiology. Steam engines
were built and greatly improved before we had a modern scientific understanding
of thermodynamics. In fact, thermodynamics was to a large extent
born out of desire to understand steam engines. In this sense, it is an
engineering science (study of manmade things) as much as a natural science
(study of natural things) or branch of physics.
Petroski’s focus in the book is the importance of engineering to
policymaking, where it is often overshadowed by science. Policy, science, and engineering play off of
each other a lot. Most of my career as
an engineer has been related to government, policy, and regulatory compliance.
The Ghost Map by science writer Steven
Johnson is the story of the birth of epidemiology. Epidemiology is a medical
science that uses statistics to
help us understand how diseases operate in a population. Using various statistical and geographic
tools, long before we had computers and GIS, physician
John Snow
demonstrated that cholera,
once a recurring plague
that wiped out hundreds of thousands of people in some outbreaks, was a waterborne
disease. This understanding,
initially met with much skepticism, allowed officials to intervene to prevent
the spread of the disease. For those who
say of their math classes, “I’ll never us this,” here is a case where math (and
science and policy) were used to make a great difference.
It is not much publicized today that the Lewis
and Clark
expedition of 1804
to 1806 had a
partly scientific mission. Captains
Lewis and Clark were charges with bringing back samples of the flora, fauna, and culture of the
western territories. It was also hoped
that they would find a water
passage to the Pacific Ocean. In Undaunted Courage, Stephen Ambrose
writes about the scientific mission as well as the policy, diplomacy, and
commercial
hopes the expedition carried.
Of course, what attracts most people to the Lewis and Clark expedition
is that it was a great adventure. There is a place in STEM fields for thoughtful
adventurers and explorers.
A list like this deserves something strange, creepy, and more fun than you care to
admit. Right now, thousands of very
young future STEM workers are catching bugs and snakes, breaking
their toys to see
what is inside, or staring into space with a weird expression
of vacancy and concentration.
Jan
Bondeson’s Buried Alive is not a
morbid book. It is sometimes humorous,
especially in consideration of topic.
From a STEM point of view, Bondeson shows how knowledge accumulates over
time. The fears and activities of our
forefathers may seem strange to us, but they sometimes made sense in light of
what they knew. Buried Alive doesn’t simply play off our fascination with the grotesque and death, though the
book might not have been written if we lacked that fascination, I think it
reminds us to approach our ancestors with a touch of grace and humility. Maybe our progeny will show us the same courtesy.
If you’re looking for something for a younger student, check out this post→
from Joanne
Loves Science or these
recommendations→ from STEM
Friday. By the way, I also write
about engineering, infrastructure and the environment at Infrastructure Watch.
Google
Saturday, July 20, 2013
No Excuses by Brian Tracy
In his book No Excuses!, self-help,
business
and sales
author Brian
Tracy says that there are several strategies that can lead to success. Self-discipline
makes them all work.
For Tracy, self-discipline is the same as self-control,
self-denial,
delayed
gratification and self-mastery.
As you might guess from this description, he relates discipline to character. One
of the important aspects of exercising discipline, even more than what you
achieve by it, is who you become by it. Self-discipline leads to greater
character, courage
and persistence.
Self-discipline is also important to having a great personal life. Our relationships
with spouses,
children
and friends,
our physical
fitness, and even our happiness and
internal peace
can be improved by discipline.
Of course, as you would expect from Tracy, he addresses the importance
of discipline in business and work.
Discipline is important to success in every aspect of business.
If you’ve read many self-help or business books, you may have seen many
of the ideas presented by Tracy in No
Excuses! Even so, some are so simple, powerful, possibly obvious and often
overlooked that they bear repeating.
-Always be improving your skills.
-Writing down your goals greatly increases the likelihood you will
complete them.
-When you are at work, work.
-If you want to be wealthy,
save money.
-Spend most of your time on your most valuable activities.
Tracy presents an interesting idea that you may not have seen
elsewhere. Happiness is not an end to itself; it is not something you achieve.
Instead, happiness arises out of the process of doing what you love, having
great relationships and meeting needs. To paraphrase the cliché, happiness
doesn’t come from reaching a destination, it comes from enjoying the journey.
Tracy brings up another worthy concept about discipline. Disciplining
yourself in one area helps you to discipline yourself in another. Every chapter
in the book is about using self-discipline in a different aspect of life. Don’t
burn out trying to do it all at once. Pick an area or two that you find most
important or needful and begin disciplining yourself in those areas. When you make
a habit of being disciplined in those areas, it will be easier to be more
self-disciplined in other areas as well.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Sunday, July 10, 2016
The Imperial Cruise by James Bradley
In 1905,
then Secretary of War William Taft
and a host of other American
dignitaries took a tour of Pacific islands
and Asian
nations. James
Bradley tells the story of this trip, along with the wider contest of President Theodore
Roosevelt’s policies toward Pacific expansion and Asia, in The Imperial Cruise.
Roosevelt, with Taft as his right hand, engaged in secret diplomacy with
Japan. The
Senate would not have approved a treaty with Japan with terms Roosevelt wanted,
and his own State Department would have strongly advised against his course. So
Roosevelt sent Taft to consummate a secret deal that he could never
acknowledge.
By the time Taft set sail, Japan was already responding to interactions
with the West. It was remaking itself into an industrialized, militarized country
in the western mold. Roosevelt saw in them American-friendly, quasi-civilized
people who could expand Anglo-Saxon virtues into Asia without slipping out from
under Anglo-American influence. As with almost everything related to the
Pacific and Asian peoples, Roosevelt was very shortsighted.
In reading about the early 20th
Century, I’ve been struck by the pervasiveness of racism. Bradley
explains how Roosevelt viewed everything through a racial lens. These were
racial lenses were proudly worn by white elites at the time. The key to history
was racial history. They saw the birth of civilization in the Middle East
with the Aryans, who began moving west. Around the Mediterranean,
where the Aryans mixed with other races, civilizations degenerated. In Germany, pure
Aryans gave rise to Teutons, who inherited Aryan civilizing with values of democracy and
individualism. These Teutons moved west and were further perfected in the
Anglo-Saxons. Anglo-Saxon civilization leapt across the Atlantic and push aside
the savages of North America.
To Roosevelt, Manifest Destiny had not closed with the conquering of the
continent; it was ready to spread into the Pacific. White men would continue to
spread their civilizing influence, subjugating or exterminating lesser, browner
races when necessary as white Americans had done to their Indian
wards. White elites like Roosevelt saw their westward destiny in this racial
history, and it was further confirm by science in Darwinian
survival of the fittest.
History
and science
refute such notions now. Bradley (and I) certainly don’t try to justify the
attitudes or actions of Roosevelt, Taft or others. Bradley is plainly critical
of handling of Pacific islands and Asia. Roosevelt’s racial views blinded him
to the abilities and patriotism of non-whites. He had the hubris to pursue
diplomacy on his own, secretly, without advice from the State Department,
Senate or anyone else who might raise the slightest objection or concern. He
tutored Japan in the ways of western imperialism, but could not imagine how
well they would learn the lessons. Bradley places at least some of the blame
for World
War II in the Pacific at the feet of Roosevelt, whose interventions created
the powerful military
empire we faced in those waters.
Roosevelt was an astute manager of his image and he understood public
relations. Because of this, he sent his oldest (and nearly estranged) daughter Alice on
the trip. She was a celebrity, and her presence assured a lot of press
coverage. Her presence was also a distraction from Taft’s secret mission.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Bradley, James. The Imperial
Cruise: A Secret History of Empire and War. New York: Little,
Brown and Company, 2009.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow
Mlodinow, Leonard. The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives. 2008. New York: Vintage, 2009.
We are bad judges of probability. When we get beyond the most simple probabilities, our intuition is terrible. It requires a rigorous logic that can trip up even professionals we might expect to know better. It can lead us to make inappropriate judgments about others and ourselves.
That is the premise presented by Leonard Mlodinow in The Drunkard’s Walk. The title refers to a random path that describes many things in nature, like Brownian motion, and society, like the stock market.
Mlodinow describes several way how and reasons why we make false assessments of probability. To begin with, we simply have poor intuition about randomness. Our brains are biased to see patterns even if one isn’t truly there. We can look into the past and piece together how we got where we are, ignoring all the ambiguities we faced at the time, but we can’t easily identify clear marker for the future. We make value judgments based on results when the results are due as much or more to random events as to the efforts of people. Worse, we make value judgments about people even when we know a result related to them is random. With each of these problems, the author presents examples from history or scientific studies.
In contrast to these problems, Mlodinow presents the sometimes counterintuitive, but more correct, views that come from using logic and statistical inference. In this manner her present several concepts of probability and statistics such as regression to the mean, the law of large numbers, Bayesian analysis, the law of errors, and normal accident theory. This isn’t a textbook, though, so the descriptions are aimed at making people aware of the power of these methods for correcting false intuitions, not training future statisticians.
In addition to these things, the book is a history of probability and statistics. Mlodinow goes back to the people who invented, developed and popularized the knowledge he is presenting. Many of these people are unusual characters. For instance, he introduces the battling Bernoullis, a family of mathematicians I was first introduced to through my background in hydraulics, who are colorful and combative enough to make an interesting subject by himself or herself. We get to meet some interesting gamblers, too.
Throughout the book, Mlodinow is building to the argument he presents in the final chapter. Namely, we should not judge people mainly by their results, whether or not they are successful or have failed, are rich or poor, are at the top or at the bottom. People with little difference in ability can have great differences in success due to random factors. We shouldn’t put too much stock in those that success or be to harsh with those who don’t.
We should take courage for ourselves, too. The more attempts we make, the more likely we are to eventually have a success.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Chance by Amir Aczel
The Numbers Game by Michael Blastland & Andrew Dilnot
The Pinball Effect by James Burke
The Unfinished Game by Keith Devlin
War Against the Weak by Edwin Black
We are bad judges of probability. When we get beyond the most simple probabilities, our intuition is terrible. It requires a rigorous logic that can trip up even professionals we might expect to know better. It can lead us to make inappropriate judgments about others and ourselves.
That is the premise presented by Leonard Mlodinow in The Drunkard’s Walk. The title refers to a random path that describes many things in nature, like Brownian motion, and society, like the stock market.
Mlodinow describes several way how and reasons why we make false assessments of probability. To begin with, we simply have poor intuition about randomness. Our brains are biased to see patterns even if one isn’t truly there. We can look into the past and piece together how we got where we are, ignoring all the ambiguities we faced at the time, but we can’t easily identify clear marker for the future. We make value judgments based on results when the results are due as much or more to random events as to the efforts of people. Worse, we make value judgments about people even when we know a result related to them is random. With each of these problems, the author presents examples from history or scientific studies.
In contrast to these problems, Mlodinow presents the sometimes counterintuitive, but more correct, views that come from using logic and statistical inference. In this manner her present several concepts of probability and statistics such as regression to the mean, the law of large numbers, Bayesian analysis, the law of errors, and normal accident theory. This isn’t a textbook, though, so the descriptions are aimed at making people aware of the power of these methods for correcting false intuitions, not training future statisticians.
In addition to these things, the book is a history of probability and statistics. Mlodinow goes back to the people who invented, developed and popularized the knowledge he is presenting. Many of these people are unusual characters. For instance, he introduces the battling Bernoullis, a family of mathematicians I was first introduced to through my background in hydraulics, who are colorful and combative enough to make an interesting subject by himself or herself. We get to meet some interesting gamblers, too.
Throughout the book, Mlodinow is building to the argument he presents in the final chapter. Namely, we should not judge people mainly by their results, whether or not they are successful or have failed, are rich or poor, are at the top or at the bottom. People with little difference in ability can have great differences in success due to random factors. We shouldn’t put too much stock in those that success or be to harsh with those who don’t.
We should take courage for ourselves, too. The more attempts we make, the more likely we are to eventually have a success.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Chance by Amir Aczel
The Numbers Game by Michael Blastland & Andrew Dilnot
The Pinball Effect by James Burke
The Unfinished Game by Keith Devlin
War Against the Weak by Edwin Black
Saturday, April 6, 2019
Anxious for Nothing by Max Lucado
In the
early chapters of Anxious for Nothing,
pastor and author Max Lucado describes the kind
of harried, distracted anxiety that people suffer
in modern life. Many are depressed by troubling things going on all around that
repeat all day on newscasts.
Honestly,
that is not the reason I picked up the book. I did not have a particularly
gloomy outlook. Nor was I consciously worked up about much. I was driving by an
amygdala-induced fear that I
didn’t understand. Even so, I read the rest of the book.
Anxious for Nothing is an extended
sermon, taking its main text as Philippians 4:4-8. The Main
points for the acronym CALM:
-ask
God for help,
-leave
your concerns with Him and
“Rejoice
in the Lord always. Again I will say, rejoice! Be anxious for nothing, but in
everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be
known to God; and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will
guard your hearts and mind ins Christ Jesus.” Philippians 4:4-8 (NKJV)
For Christians, there is plenty of
good to be found in God that can allay our fears. God is in control.
He has demonstrated His love and mercy toward us in Christ. He has a good plan
for us and He is able to carry it out.
God
hears our prayers for help. He invites
us to ask for what we want. His own love for us motivates Him to answer our
prayers; though sometimes He has better things in mind for us than we might
imagine. We can rely on His promises, which He encourages us to rehearse,
though He never forgets them.
Because
we can rely on God, we can stop worrying. We can let things go. We can remind
ourselves of all the way God has already helped us an rest in peace.
Finally,
we can choose what we think about. Instead of worrying, we can abide in Christ.
We can dwell on what God has done for us and what He has promised, and we can
take courage.
Max
Lucado also wrote
If
you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
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