Hari
Seldon used mathematics
to study psychology
and society.
He developed the science
of psychohistory,
which he would use to predict future social, economic
and political
trends. This was utter science
fiction when I read Foundation in
high school,
and doubly so in the 1940s
when Isaac
Asimov was writing and publishing the stories that would eventually become
the novel. (By the way, psychohistory now refers to the application of methods
from psychoanalysis to the study of history
and social
sciences.)
We’ve come a long way. Computers are
much more powerful and many of us carry a networked computer around in our
pockets much of the day. The computers record a lot of information about us,
especially how we use them, and are crunching the numbers so people can anticipate
our wants and influence
our behaviors.
Stephen
Baker gives us a glimpse into that world in his book The Numerati. “Numerati” is Baker’s term for the mathematicians,
computer scientists and other math-literate scientists and professionals who
are trying to use numbers and equations to describe and predict human behavior.
This type of analysis has applications in many areas. As you might
expect, stores,
marketers
and advertisers
are using it to try to sell us stuff. Not only are they trying to persuade us,
they are segmenting the market to try to get the highest prices they can for
their products from each buyer (and spend less time dealing with die-hard
bargain shoppers).
Similarly, politicians are using this type of analysis to reach swing
voters. Companies are trying to get the most out of workers.
Health insurance companies are seeking
to minimize exposures to risk. Law
enforcement is getting all the information it can lay hands on to try to find
the terrorist lurking in our midst (finding a needle in a haystack may be
easier).
That sounds sinister, and Baker has reservations about the benefits of
us sharing so much information, but there are opportunities for those of us who
are not numerati, or can’t afford a staff of mathematicians to do our bidding. The
numbers that show which workers are most productive could be turned around to
help us show our value and potential win a raise or promotion. The numbers that
show minute changes in our behavior might help us diagnose and treat diseases
earlier and less expensively, or help us live more fully with chronic diseases.
They might even match us with a soul mate.
Though science and technology
have advanced in the decade since this book was published, the data sciences
Baker described are still new. Some of the things we see being done with
computers on television
or film
are still new concepts that don’t work nearly as quickly or accurately as
depicted. However, people are working every day to make these technologies
better.
If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in
Baker, Stephen. The Numerati.
Boston: Houghton
Mifflin, 2008.
