Stat-Spotting by Joel Best

We are confronted with statistics in the news wherever we turn: television, radio, newspapers, magazines and the internet. It can be hard to sort out what meaning to make of the numbers, especially when there are competing statistics or interpretations.

Sociology professor Joel Best provides advice on recognizing suspicious statistics in Stat-Spotting. This is by no means a technical or mathematical guide to statistics. It is aimed squarely at the layman who is confronted by statistics in the news and from the mouths of politicians or experts.

A good place to start is with a bit of advice that Best puts toward the end of the book (this isn’t inconvenient; it is a short book). If a number seems shocking, unbelievable or far outside of what your own experience might lead you to expect, it is probably worth digging into it some more.

Not every bad statistic is the result of bad faith. By the time a statistic reaches the public, it has been through several hands. It starts with some research, which may be undertaking by a fairly neutral party or by an advocate. In either case, they have a motivation to get attention for their work. Someone has to bring a study to the attention of the media, and they may add a layer of interpretation on the statistics. Finally, reporters, editors and producers are looking for stories that are sufficiently interesting or important to draw an audience.

This is a process that can introduce mistakes, even unintentionally, and bring sensational statistics to the fore. Many of these people don’t know any more about research methods or statistical analysis that you. The math and logic of statistics, especially when it relates to probability, can be counterintuitive, and even professional researchers sometimes don’t have a solid grasp on it. Of course, some of these people are producing statistics with the intent of supporting a particular point of view.

Best points out 32 ways in which the statistics you see may have a problem. These are easy to grasp and don’t involve much if any math. He presents them in simple terms, and in each case provides an example from the news.

There are a lot of demands for our attention and action, and statistics are often cited as part of these appeals. It is helpful to approach these numbers with some skepticism. Stat-Spotting provides accessible tools for testing the reasonableness of the statistics we come across day to day.

If you’re interested in this book, you may also be interested in

Freakonomics by Steven D. Levitt & Stephen J. Dubner

The Johnstown Flood by David McCollough

Best, Joel. Stat-Spotting: A Field Guide to Identifying Dubious Statistics. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 2008.